St. James Croquet Association

Interactive Roquet Probability Calculator

Establish your baseline percentage by taking multiple shots at a ball 13 yards away. For example, 12 hits out of 20 shots = 60%.

How does it work?

The math is based on probability and statistical modeling inspired by David Appleton.

  • Baseline: Uses your 13-yard accuracy as input.
  • Scaling: Uses logistic distribution to map accuracy over distance.
  • Environment: Visibility and Lawn Quality adjust the curve realisticly.
Why 13 yards?
In six-wicket croquet, 13 yards is considered a balanced intermediate shot distance used for statistical scaling.
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5/10
Estimated Critical Distance: 13.00 yards
What is Critical Distance?
The distance at which your likelihood of successfully hitting a ball begins to drop significantly below your baseline consistency.

*Inspired by David Appleton’s 2011 paper.
Simulator based on statistical models. Actual results may vary based on player form.